As the crypto market prepares for one of the most important macro events of the year—the FOMC decision on December 10, 2025—Bitcoin is once again stuck below $92K, unable to break higher despite strong long-term fundamentals.
My real-time Retail vs Whale Dashboard is showing an unusually aggressive positioning battle between whales and retail, making this FOMC setup one of the most critical of 2025.
Here is the complete breakdown.
📉 Current Bitcoin Price Action (10 Dec 2025 — 11:30 PM IST)
- BTC/USD: $92,435
- 24H Change: -1.1%
- Range: $91,280 – $93,880
- Volume: Lower than usual due to pre-FOMC volatility suppression
Bitcoin remains stuck below $92K, and whale data explains exactly why.
🐋 Real-Time Whale Data — Retail vs Whale Dashboard
1️⃣ 1-Hour Timeframe: Short-Term Pressure (Bearish)
Whale Pressure Meter: 99% (EXTREME)
- Whale Shorts: $373M
- Whale Longs: $4M
- Net Position: $369M short-heavy
This is one of the heaviest short concentrations seen in weeks.
Indicator Summary (1H)
- MACD: Bearish divergence
- EMA: Slight bearish tilt
- Signal Strength: No clear setup (50/50)
1H Conclusion
Whales are aggressively shorting, likely aiming to trap retail traders before the FOMC announcement.
This is one major reason Bitcoin remains stuck below $92K.
2️⃣ 4-Hour Timeframe: The Trend Turns Bullish
Despite heavy short pressure in the 1H chart, the 4H timeframe flips the narrative.
Whale Pressure Meter (4H): Still 99%
But…
EMA + MACD Just Triggered a Fresh Bullish Cross
This happened moments ago—an extremely strong signal.
Indicator Summary (4H)
- RSI: 57 (Neutral → Slightly bullish)
- Confidence Bar: 100% Bull / 0% Bear
- Top Confluence: EMA Bull + MACD Bull
4H Conclusion
Whales heavily shorted the $91–92K zone,
but are now beginning to unwind those positions, creating a clean BUY setup.
This is the first 4H bullish confluence in nearly 3 weeks.
⚡ FOMC Tonight: 3 Possible Scenarios & How Bitcoin Reacts
Scenario 1 → 25 bps Cut + Dovish Powell
Probability: ~68%
If Powell signals flexibility for future cuts:
BTC Reaction
- Immediate move: $94.5K – $96K
- Next 48 hours: $98K – $100K
- 4H bullish confluence fully supports this move
This is the scenario where Bitcoin finally breaks above $92K.
Scenario 2 → 25 bps Cut + Hawkish Tone
Probability: ~25%
If Powell focuses on sticky inflation:
BTC Reaction
- Drop to: $88.5K – $90K
- 1H bearish structure reactivates
- Whales’ $369M short stack dominates
In this case, Bitcoin may stay stuck below $92K for another 24–48 hours.
Scenario 3 → No Cut or 50 bps Cut (Surprise)
Probability: <7%
This creates extreme volatility.
BTC Reaction
- $5K–$8K swing either direction
- Long-term bullish narrative remains intact
- Short-term liquidity chaos expected
📊 Historical FOMC Behavior vs Today’s Setup
In the last 4 FOMC meetings:
- BTC dumped an average 4.2% immediately after the announcement
- But hit a new ATH within 7–14 days every time
What Makes Today Different?
- QT officially ended on Dec 1 → Liquidity returning
- Whale shorts at extreme levels → Squeeze potential high
- Fresh 4H bullish confluence → Rare & powerful
This is NOT a typical FOMC setup.
🧭 Retail vs Whale Dashboard — Final Verdict
Short-Term (1H): Bearish Pressure
Whales attempting to push price down
Bitcoin still struggling below $92K
Medium-Term (4H–Daily): Bullish Reversal Building
Whales covering shorts
EMA + MACD bullish cross
BUY setup confirmed
Expected Move Tonight
- Dovish Outcome: $96K–$100K (High probability)
- Hawkish Outcome: Drop to $88.5K (Strong support zone)
📈 My Personal Trade Plan (Not Financial Advice)
- Accumulating dips near $91,800–$92,200
- Stop-loss: Below $90,800
- Target 1: $96,000
- Target 2: $100,000
If hawkish surprise → Re-enter around $88.5K.
🔗 Suggested External Links (DoFollow)
- https://www.federalreserve.gov
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp